Hezbollah faces a dilemma after a deadly Golan Heights attack, needing to retaliate to restore deterrence without escalating conflict, while Iran weighs its own complex response.
The Aftermath of the Golan Heights Attack
The recent rocket attack on a soccer field in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights. It killed 12 children and teenagers, has sparked a tense standoff between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.
The attack, which Hezbollah has denied responsibility for, has left both Iran and Hezbollah in a quandary. They must now carefully calibrate their response to restore deterrence without sparking an even more damaging escalation.
Hezbollah’s Dilemma
Analysts agree that Hezbollah will feel compelled to retaliate, as the strike targeted a top Hezbollah commander and killed civilians. Hezbollah cannot afford to let this attack go unanswered. Because it would set a new precedent of Israel targeting civilians in Beirut’s suburbs with impunity.
However, Hezbollah’s response must be carefully measured. To reestablish deterrence, the group will likely need to strike deeper into Israeli territory, which brings great risks. Hezbollah will probably target a significant military target in an attempt to cause material damage while limiting further escalation.
Iran’s Considerations
For Iran, the situation is more complicated. The assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran was seen as a major embarrassment, demonstrating that Israel can easily hit targets in Iran.
While Haniyeh was not an integral part of the “axis of resistance”, his death was still “damaging reputationally” and “humiliating” for Iran. As such, Iran may choose to retaliate, potentially through its proxies, by striking Israeli or Jewish targets globally.
However, Iran’s response may be mitigated by the fact that Haniyeh was not an Iranian figure. Analysts believe Iran could opt to limit its response, as it did after a similar escalation in April when diplomatic intervention helped contain the situation.
A Delicate Balancing Act
Both Hezbollah and Iran are in a delicate position, needing to respond to the attacks to restore their deterrence, but also wary of sparking a wider regional war. The exchange of strikes in April showed that there was “a lot of luck” in keeping the limited escalation. And they see the current situation as an even more “pivotal moment” in the conflict.
If the responses from Hezbollah and Iran do not cause Israeli casualties, a wider war may still be avoided. However, as one analyst noted, “We are in the territory of too many ‘ifs’ to avoid a war, and this doesn’t bode well.” Resolving this crisis will require difficult diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions and find a sustainable political solution.
What are your thoughts on Hezbollah and Iran’s potential responses to the Golan Heights attack? Share your views in the comments!
